Miami Real Estate Market Report: Q4 2025 Analysis & 2026 Forecast

In-depth analysis of the Miami real estate market for Q4 2025, with a detailed forecast for Q1 2026. Covers price trends, inventory, neighborhood analysis, and opportunities for international buyers.

Table of Contents

• 1. Executive Summary
• 2. Macro & Economic Conditions
• 3. Market Analysis
• 4. Neighborhoods
• 5. Brazilian Buyers
• 6. Q1 2026 Forecast

Report Date: November 14, 2025

Target Audience: Domestic & International Buyers, with Special Focus on Brazilian Buyers

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Executive Summary

Miami’s real estate market in Q4 2025 continues to demonstrate resilience and stability after the post-pandemic boom. The market has transitioned from a frenzied seller’s market into a more balanced environment, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers. While overall sales volumes remain below pandemic peaks, prices have stabilized at elevated levels with single-family homes showing continued modest appreciation.

Key Findings for Q4 2025:

• Median Home Prices: Single-family homes at $655K-$665K (stable to +1-2% YoY), condos at $420K (flat YoY)
• Market Status: Balanced for single-family, slight buyer’s market for condos
• Inventory: 6.4-6.5 months for single-family, 14+ months for condos
• International Buyers: 52% of new construction purchases, with 73 countries represented
• Brazilian Participation: BRL strengthened to R$5.29/USD (November 2025), creating favorable buying conditions
• Mortgage Rates: Currently ~6.6%, expected to decline to 6.2-6.3% by year-end

Q1 2026 Forecast (High Confidence):

• Prices: +1-3% for single-family, flat to +2% for condos
• Sales Volume: +5-10% YoY increase expected
• Mortgage Rates: 6.0-6.2% range
• Inventory: Will plateau or slightly decrease for single-family; condo inventory remains elevated
• Strongest Sectors: Luxury coastal ($5M+), prime suburban single-family, international buyer-driven segments

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Macro & Economic Conditions

Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Policy

The Federal Reserve has entered an easing cycle after aggressive tightening through 2023-2024. The Fed implemented 25 basis point cuts in September and October 2025, bringing the federal funds target to 3.75%-4.00%. Market expectations point to continued gradual rate cuts through 2026, though uncertainty remains regarding the pace.

Mortgage Rate Environment:

• Current (Nov 2025): 30-year fixed averaging 6.6%
• Near-term Forecast: Expected to decline to 6.0-6.3% by end of 2025
• Q1 2026 Projection: 6.0-6.2% range (confidence: medium-high)
• Full Year 2026 Outlook: Fannie Mae and MBA project ~6.0-6.1% average

This gradual decline in financing costs will incrementally improve affordability and support buyer demand, though the impact will be modest compared to the 3-4% rates of 2020-2021.

Inflation and Price Stability

Inflation has moderated significantly from 2022 highs:

• U.S. CPI: Running around 3.1% YoY (September 2025)
• Miami Local CPI: +2.5% YoY (August 2025), down from nearly 10% in 2022

Miami experienced higher inflation earlier in the cycle but has now cooled to near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Sticky components include shelter costs and property insurance, which remain elevated. Forecast: inflation stays ~2.5-3.0% into Q1 2026 (confidence: high).

Employment and Wages

South Florida’s job market remains exceptionally strong and is a primary driver of housing demand:

Key Metrics (Q3 2025):

• Miami Metro Unemployment: 2.8-3.0% (well below 4.3% national rate)
• Job Growth: Miami metro posted fastest job growth (+1.6% YoY) among major U.S. metros in March 2025
• Employment Increase: Miami-Dade County employment rose 1.5% in Q2 2025 vs. 0.8% nationally
• 2026 Projection: +2.4% increase in total employment, adding ~80,000 jobs

Sector Highlights:

• Trade & transportation, health services, professional services all expanding
• High-paying finance jobs (hedge funds, private equity) relocating to Miami
• Technology sector growth, though moderated from 2022 peak
• Average wages growing 4-5% annually

The influx of high-paying jobs ($100K+ salaries) is particularly supportive of mid-to-luxury real estate segments. Confidence: high that Miami’s labor market stays tight into 2026.

Migration and Population Dynamics

In-migration continues to fuel housing demand, though at a moderated pace from pandemic peaks:

Domestic Migration:

• Florida Statewide: Net +365,000 annually (2023-25 average)
• Miami-Dade Growth: Population up ~1.6-1.8% per year
• Top Origin States: New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois, Massachusetts
• Drivers: No state income tax, business-friendly climate, lifestyle preferences, corporate relocations

International Migration:

• Miami ranked #1 U.S. market for foreign homebuyers in Q1 2025
• Miami-Dade ranks #1 in U.S. for international migration
• Primary sources: Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Canada, Europe

The combination of domestic relocation from high-tax states and continued Latin American demand creates sustained housing pressure. We expect continued positive migration in Q1 2026 (confidence: high), supporting both rental and ownership markets.

Currency Dynamics – USD/BRL Exchange Rate

Critical Factor for Brazilian Buyers:

The Brazilian Real has experienced significant volatility but has recently strengthened:

• End-2024 Low: R$6.7327 per USD (December 25, 2024)
• Current (Nov 14, 2025): R$5.29 per USD
• YoY Change: Real strengthened ~8.6% year-over-year
• Recent Trend: Real strengthened 2.85% over past month, up 8.56% over past 12 months

Implications for Brazilian Buyers:

• The current rate of R$5.29/USD represents favorable conditions compared to late 2024
• However, the Real remains historically weak (long-term average closer to R$3-4/USD)
• Analyst forecasts suggest potential weakening back toward R$5.7-6.0/USD by end-2025
• Currency uncertainty creates both opportunity (buy now at better rate) and risk (potential further Real depreciation)

Strategic Considerations:

Brazilian buyers should monitor FX closely and consider:

1. Purchasing sooner if they have Real-denominated assets to convert

2. Staggered deposit structures for pre-construction to manage FX risk

3. USD-denominated assets or financing to hedge currency exposure

Construction Costs and Supply Constraints

Building costs remain elevated despite some material price stabilization:

Materials:

• Construction materials inflation has cooled (+0.1% annual escalation in 2025)
• Supply chain improvements and nearshoring have eased price spikes

Labor:

• Critical Shortage: Florida needs an estimated 439,000 new construction workers by end-2025
• Wage Growth: Construction wages climbing 5-10% in South Florida
• Impact: Labor scarcity is delaying timelines and keeping development costs high

Net Effect: Expect construction costs to remain high into 2026 (confidence: high), limiting new supply growth and supporting existing property values. This particularly impacts affordable housing development while luxury projects remain economically viable.

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Miami-Dade County Overview (Q4 2025)

Market Transition and Current State

Miami-Dade’s residential market in late 2025 has transitioned from a seller’s frenzy to a more balanced state. Sales activity has moderated from 2021 peaks but remains healthy. Prices are near record highs with flattening growth, and inventory is normalizing after severe shortages.

Key Performance Metrics (September-October 2025)

Sales Volume:

• September 2025: 1,769 total closed sales (865 single-family + 904 condos) – highest monthly count of 2025
• Single-Family Sales: Up +6.9% YoY
• Condo Sales: Up +2.4% YoY
• Year-to-Date Trend: Total sales down from 2022 peak but consistent with 2018-2019 “normal” levels

The late Q3/early Q4 surge was driven by pent-up demand meeting slightly lower mortgage rates and increased inventory availability.

Median Prices (October 2025):

| Property Type | Median Price | YoY Change | Notes |

|—————|————–|————|——-|

| Single-Family | $655,000-$665,000 | +0.8% to +1.8% | 159 consecutive months of appreciation (13.25 years) |

| Condo/Townhome | $420,000 | 0.0% (flat) | Pause after years of gains; 110% increase since 2015 |

| Median List Price | $599,000 | -2% to -3% YoY | Reflects market normalization |

Price Context:

• Single-family prices have risen 167% from February 2015 to February 2025 ($245K → $655K)
• Miami single-family median prices +138% since July 2015
• Prices remain near all-time highs but growth has flattened from double-digit pandemic-era gains
• Ultra-luxury segment ($3,000+/sqft for single-family) up 115% YoY

Inventory and Supply Dynamics

Dramatic Supply Increase:

• Active Listings: Up ~20% YoY for both single-family and condos
• Single-Family Supply: 6.4-6.5 months (balanced market threshold)
• Condo Supply: 14.0 months (buyer’s market territory)
• Total County Inventory: ~18,000-19,000 active listings (September 2025), highest since 2019 but still -16.6% vs September 2019

Supply Sources:

1. New construction deliveries

2. More homeowners listing to capture high prices

3. Slower sales pace extending time on market

4. Notably: New listing flow actually DOWN -9.4% YoY – inventory growth from listings sitting longer, not listing surge

Market Implications:

• Buyers have significantly more negotiating power than 2021-2023
• Sellers must price competitively and expect longer marketing periods
• No signs of panic selling; most owners have substantial equity cushions

Days on Market and Sales Pace

Properties are taking longer to sell:

• Single-Family Homes: 50 days median (was 32 days in 2024) – 56% increase
• Condos: 75 days median (was 51 days in 2024) – 47% increase
• County-Wide Average: ~85-127 days depending on source and segment

This normalization reflects a healthier market with less bidding war frenzy but also requires sellers to be patient and realistic about pricing.

Cash Purchase Dynamics

Miami maintains exceptionally high cash transaction rates:

• Condo Sales: 46.6% all-cash (up from 43% year ago)
• Single-Family Sales: 23.2% all-cash (up from 21%)
• Overall (July 2025): 37.1% cash transactions

This far exceeds U.S. averages and reflects:

1. International buyer presence (many purchase all-cash)

2. Domestic buyers relocating with equity from expensive markets

3. Investors and institutional capital

4. Wealth migration from high-tax states

High cash prevalence insulates Miami from interest rate sensitivity compared to most U.S. markets.

Price/List Ratio and Negotiability

Sellers are accepting lower percentages of asking price:

• Single-Family: 95% of original list price (was 96%)
• Condos: 93% of original list price (was 95%)

This 2-5% negotiation room represents a significant shift from 2021-2022 when properties sold at or above asking. Buyers, especially in the condo market, can now successfully negotiate price reductions, seller-paid closing costs, and other concessions.

Distressed Sales and Market Health

The market shows very low distress levels:

• Foreclosures/Short Sales: Less than 1% of all sales
• Equity Cushion: Homeowners who purchased in 2009 have gained $542,175 average home equity vs. $310,232 U.S. average
• Recent Buyers Protected: Even 2021-2022 buyers have equity from appreciation

Low distress supports a price floor and prevents the cascading declines seen in 2008-2009.

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Neighborhood-Level Analysis

Miami is a city of micro-markets with distinct dynamics by area. Below is detailed analysis of major neighborhoods, with special attention to areas favored by international buyers, particularly Brazilians.

Greater Downtown & Urban Core

Brickell, Downtown Miami, Edgewater, Midtown, Wynwood

Market Type: High-rise condo-dominated; ground zero for inventory buildup

Prices (Q4 2025):

• Brickell: Median condo $600K-$650K; luxury units $1M-$5M+
• Downtown/Edgewater: Median $500K-$600K
• Price Trend: Leveling off after 30%+ gains in 2021; up ~4% YoY in mid-2025 thanks to new luxury deliveries
• Midtown/Wynwood: New boutique projects $700-$1,000/sqft

Inventory Status:

• ELEVATED – 18-24 months supply in many buildings
• Downtown/Brickell condo supply well above balanced levels
• $1M+ segment: ~25 months supply (buyer’s market)
• Even sub-$500K units have double-digit months inventory

Contributing Factors:

• Major recent completions: Casa Bella, Missoni Baia, Aria Reserve, 501 First, Natiivo
• Older condo owners listing (some to avoid post-Surfside repair assessments)
• New construction pipeline continuing through 2026-2027

Buyer Composition:

• Strong International Presence: Latin Americans (Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil) are primary buyers
• Brazilian Focus: Brickell is extremely popular with Brazilian professionals – “Wall Street South” attracts finance executives
• Domestic: Young professionals, especially New York relocations for finance/tech jobs
• Investors: High percentage of investor ownership; many units rental-intended

Brazilian-Specific Insights:

According to new construction data, Brazil accounts for ~9% of Miami new-condo foreign buyers (ranked #4). Brazilians particularly favor:

• Brickell for proximity to finance jobs and cosmopolitan lifestyle
• Edgewater for waterfront views and newer luxury towers
• Cultural comfort: Portuguese-speaking services widely available, Brazilian restaurants/businesses concentrated here

Rental Market:

• Very Strong Demand: 1BR in Brickell rents $2,700-$3,200; luxury 2BR $5K+
• Occupancy: >95%
• Competition: Routinely tops “most competitive rental market” lists
• Wynwood emerging as hot rental area with new multifamily developments

Pre-Construction Activity:

Pipeline is heaviest here with dozens of major projects:

• St. Regis Brickell (2 towers, 2026/27)
• Waldorf Astoria (100 stories, ~2027)
• Cipriani Residences (2026)
• Baccarat Brickell (2026)
• 1428 Brickell (2026)
• Aria Reserve (782 units, 2024-25 delivery)
• Edition Edgewater (2026)

Deposit Structures: Typical 50% total in stages (10% increments); well-capitalized developers but some offering incentives given inventory conditions.

Appreciation Signals:

• Short-Term: SOFT (low/medium confidence for slight negative to flat growth into early 2026)
• Pressure Factors: 14+ months condo supply, forced price cuts on older units competing with new construction
• Some older downtown condos saw -3% to -5% price declines YoY
• However, newest luxury units holding value or appreciating
• Long-Term: STRONG (high confidence) – population and jobs expanding; excess inventory will absorb by 2026-27

Bottom Line for Buyers:

This is buyer’s market territory for condos. Excellent opportunity to negotiate 5-10% off asking prices, with seller concessions common. International buyers with cash have significant leverage. For Brazilian buyers, this represents optimal timing to secure Brickell/Downtown properties at favorable prices while BRL is relatively strong.

For Sellers:

Must differentiate (renovations, turnkey furniture packages) and price aggressively. Realistic expectations essential – overpricing leads to months of market time.

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Luxury Coastal Enclaves

Miami Beach (South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, South of Fifth), Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Aventura

Market Type: Oceanfront condos and luxury single-family; international buyer magnet

Prices (Q4 2025):

Miami Beach:

• Overall condo median: ~$580K
• South Beach condos: ~$425K (older walk-ups) to multi-million (South of Fifth towers)
• Single-family median: ~$2.9M (Q3’25), though down -16.8% YoY from atypical $3.5M in Q3’24
• Ultra-luxury (Star Island, North Bay Road): $20M-$50M+ regularly

Surfside:

• Condo median: $1.06M (+43% YoY) – driven by Four Seasons Surf Club and Arte closings at $3K+/sqft
• Single-family median: ~$2.1M (+59% YoY), but small sample size

Bal Harbour:

• Condo median: ~$2.5M (+93% YoY!) – Rivage Bal Harbour and concentration of $5M+ sales
• Essentially all high-end stock; values soared as wealthy buyers competed for rare inventory

Bay Harbor Islands:

• Condo median: ~$538K (-37% YoY) – last year had penthouse closings; this year normalized
• More affordable pocket adjacent to Bal Harbour

Sunny Isles Beach:

• Average condo price: ~$1.8M (+30% YoY)
• Estimated median: ~$1.0M
• Huge range: Older 1990s condos $500-$800K; ultra-lux towers $5M-$30M
• Penthouse at Estates at Acqualina closed ~$31M

Aventura:

• Condo median: $450K-$500K (estimate)
• Single-family in gated communities: $1.5M+ median
• Mid-luxury market, popular with families

Price Trends:

Ultra-luxury is booming – Bal Harbour, Surfside, Sunny Isles high-end saw 20-50%+ annual increases in some segments. This is driven by:

• Wealth migration (domestic and international ultra-high-net-worth individuals)
• Scarce oceanfront land
• Record-breaking $/sqft for branded developments (Ritz, Aman, Four Seasons)

Older condos (1980s buildings, North Beach) saw modest declines as buyers prefer newer options.

Overall, pricing signals are strong: Miami Beach/Barrier Islands median up +2.9% YoY, average $/sqft up +5.7%.

Inventory Dynamics:

Mixed Picture:

• Luxury inventory actually tightened – top 10% condo inventory dropped -27% YoY as wealthy buyers absorbed prime units
• General market inventory up – listing inventory rose +11.8% YoY; months’ supply hit 18.0 months overall
• Dichotomy: Older and mid-tier units lingering; best properties move quickly

Examples:

• South Beach has plenty of older condo inventory (1970s buildings)
• Sunny Isles despite strong sales: 15-20 months inventory for condos >$1M
• Surfside/Bal Harbour: Small markets with lumpy inventory (sometimes <20 listings, then new project adds shadow inventory)

Buyer Composition:

Heavily International:

Foreign buyers dominate new condo developments:

• Latin Americans, Europeans, Russians (pre-sanctions), Canadians
• Brazilian Presence: Sunny Isles historically loved by Brazilians (Portuguese heard regularly at Porsche Tower)
• Brazilians estimated as top-5 foreign group in Sunny Isles, seeking beachfront condos as investments and status symbols
• Bal Harbour/Surfside: Many Brazilian and Argentine affluent families, drawn by luxury shopping (Bal Harbour Shops) and brand-name condos
• Miami Beach (South Beach): More Europeans (Italian, French, British); Brazilians present but often prefer newer buildings in Sunny Isles or Brickell
• Aventura: Notable Brazilian community – upper-middle-class families for suburban feel and bilingual schools; earned nickname “Little Brazil”

Domestic: Northeastern U.S. second-home buyers (South Beach, SoFi); high-net-worth individuals from NY/CA

Rental Market:

Coastal condos tricky for rentals due to many buildings disallowing short-term rentals:

• Miami Beach: Bans STR (<6 months) in most residential areas; only certain tourist zones (parts of South Beach) permit Airbnb
• Surfside/Bal Harbour: Strictly limit STRs (family-oriented towns)
• Strong Seasonal Demand: Northeastern snowbirds, Europeans rent winter season
• Annual Rentals: Low vacancy as affluent locals/professionals rent if can’t buy
• Cap Rates: Low (<3% net) – buyers seek lifestyle/asset preservation, not yield

Pre-Construction & Development:

Limited Pipeline due to land scarcity, but ultra-high-end:

• Miami Beach: Aman Hotel & Residences (ultra-luxury, 2026 at Faena); Bulgari Residences (planned at Shore Club); Five Park (just delivered)
• Surfside/Bal Harbour: Rivage Bal Harbour (58 units, ~2026, sold out quickly); proposed Rosewood Residences Surfside
• Sunny Isles: Constant activity – Bentley Residences (60%+ sold, 2026); St. Regis Sunny Isles (2026/27); recently delivered Turnberry Ocean Club (2020)
• Brand Strategy: 30-50% deposits; targeting foreign buyers; Bentley had many Latin American pre-sales

Absorption: Healthy for marquee projects; lesser-known struggling. International demand suggests supply at top manageable, but mid-market condos ($500K-$1.5M) might see oversupply as wealthy buyers bypass.

Appreciation Signals:

• Luxury coastal showed strongest appreciation in 2025 – luxury condo median Miami Beach up 42% YoY, Bal Harbour +93%, Surfside +43%
• Partly “mix effect” (more high-end sales) but underscores robust demand
• Q1 2026 Forecast:
• Ultra-luxury (high confidence): Continued strength for prime properties
• Older stock (medium confidence): Some depreciation possible in aging buildings needing repairs
• Risk Factors: Currency dynamics (LA economic slowdown), rental yields low

Bottom Line:

This segment remains resilient and somewhat insulated. Buyers with means still face competition for best units. However, leverage exists for older units – deals available if willing to renovate. For Brazilian luxury buyers, Miami’s coastal market offers prestige and USD asset haven – properties here have global cachet (similar to Cannes or Dubai). Sellers of luxury can achieve record prices if property is unique; sellers of older condos need realistic expectations with new competition.

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Suburban Single-Family Markets

Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Pinecrest, Palmetto Bay, Doral, North Miami

Market Type: Primarily single-family home markets (some condos in Gables/Grove); favored by families, professionals, some international relocations for quality of life

Prices (Q4 2025):

Coconut Grove:

• Median single-family: $1.8-$2.0M (estimate; Grove sales cluster above $1M)
• Luxury segment (waterfront estates): $5M-$20M
• Luxury condos (Park Grove, Grove at Grand Bay): Multi-million; doubled in value since 2016
• Price trend: Up ~+2.9% YoY mid-2025

Coral Gables:

• Median single-family: $1.1-$1.3M (county May 2025 stat showed $1.0M+ and rising)
• Range: Entry areas ~$800K; ultra-lux enclaves (Gables Estates) $10M+ sales
• 14 years continuous appreciation; 3-5% YoY currently
• Condos (downtown Coral Gables): ~$600K median

Pinecrest:

• Median single-family: $1.5-$1.8M
• Saw big pandemic-era appreciation (space/privacy demand)
• Growth leveled to low single-digits YoY
• High-end new builds on acre lots: $4-$7M

Palmetto Bay:

• Median single-family: $700K-$800K
• One of more “affordable” suburban family options
• Jumped 30%+ in 2021-22; roughly flat YoY in 2025 as higher rates pinch buyers

Doral:

• Median single-family: $650K-$700K
• Median condo/townhome: ~$400K
• Mix of housing types; hotspot for foreign buyers (Venezuelans especially) last decade
• Price growth slowed; some condo submarkets slightly negative YoY due to ample new construction

North Miami:

• More mixed market; median single-family $450K-$550K (affordable by Miami standards)
• Steady appreciation with overall market; some 2025 cooling as rates price out marginal buyers

Inventory:

Generally tight for single-family, especially compared to condo-heavy areas:

• Months’ Supply: ~3-6 months typical
• Coconut Grove/Coral Gables: Often <4 months (high demand, low turnover of historic homes)
• Pinecrest: ~6-7 months (larger homes take longer but still balanced)
• Palmetto Bay: Extremely tight 2022 (<1 month); now ~3-4 months (still undersupplied)
• Doral SFH: ~5-6 months; condo/townhouse ~8+ months (new builds)
• North Miami: ~5-6 months (balanced); some areas softer due to flood/insurance issues

Critical Point: New listings in family areas remain scarce. Many owners locked in low mortgages staying put. Pent-up demand for any well-priced listing (multiple offers still common under $1M).

Miami single-family inventory is still -17% below 2019 levels county-wide, and shortage most acute in these prime neighborhoods.

Buyer Composition:

Mostly domestic and long-term residents, with international elite for lifestyle:

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove:

• Local professionals (doctors, attorneys, executives)
• Foreign buyers who move families (often from Latin America or Europe)
• Many Brazilian families choose these areas – drawn by Miami’s private bilingual schools (Gulliver, Carrollton, etc.) and community feel
• Brazilian entrepreneurs buying in Gables Estates or Pinecrest when relocating businesses to Miami
• Similar to high-end São Paulo suburbs

Doral:

• Heavily Latin American (Venezuelan, Colombian, Brazilian to lesser extent)
• Growing domestic young families as Doral’s job base expands

Palmetto Bay:

• Mostly local Miamians and out-of-state young families (relatively affordable house + yard)

North Miami:

• Largely local; Keystone Point area attracts some foreign second-home buyers (boaters – ocean access canals)

Overall: International demand lower than in condos, except ultra-lux enclaves of Gables/Grove which see foreign millionaires moving (often via EB-5 or L-1 business visas).

Rental Demand:

Strong for single-family rentals (scarce):

• 3BR house in Coral Gables: $5,000+/month rent
• Palmetto Bay 3BR: ~$3,500/mo
• Vacancy for SFH rentals: <3%
• Pinecrest/Gables luxury rentals: $8K-$15K (executive homes, consulates, corporate execs)

Rent vs Buy:

Coin flip in these segments. With high prices and rates, renting can be cheaper monthly:

• Example: $1M Coral Gables home with 20% down at 6.5% = ~$6,000+ monthly PITI; might rent for similar or less
• Tilts some would-be buyers to rent and wait for better rates
• However, rental supply very low (most owners occupy homes), so rents stay high

Expect rent growth +3-5%/yr in desirable neighborhoods as population grows.

Development:

These areas are mostly built-out. New construction limited to:

• Tear-down/Rebuilds: Builders buy old Grove cottage for $800K, build modern home selling $3M+
• Pinecrest: Lot of that activity (older ranches replaced by modern estates)
• Coral Gables: Some new condo projects downtown (LifeTime, Villa Valencia delivered); nothing massive upcoming
• Coconut Grove: Notable new ultra-luxe condos (Park Grove, Mr. C Residences) largely sold out; Grove Isles redevelopment (Vita at Grove Isle under construction)
• Doral: Plenty of ongoing new home communities by Lennar, Terra, etc. – Doral adding significant inventory (thousands of townhomes)

Trends and Signals:

These neighborhoods have been among the most stable. Even as interest rates rose, single-family prices haven’t dropped – too little supply.

Only Softening Signs:

• Longer time to sell for luxury properties over $5M
• Some sellers doing small price reductions to close deals
• But median prices essentially at peak and inching up

Forecast:

• Continued slight appreciation (~+1-4% next quarter) given supply-demand gap (confidence: high in stability)
• If mortgage rates fall, surge of pent-up demand could bid prices up quickly
• Risks: Property insurance hikes (windstorm/flood costs doubled for some); if recession hits white-collar jobs, demand could dip

Overall, these are Miami’s most “inelastic” markets – desirable, supply-constrained, buttressed by high-income demographics. Unlikely to see correction absent major economic shock.

Bottom Line:

Still strong seller’s markets (except Doral condos). Buyers should prepare for competition on well-priced listings (bidding wars not uncommon under $1M). Patience key as inventory trickles slowly.

For Brazilian/International Buyers:

Seeking family home will find Coral Gables/Grove/Pinecrest very stable and less volatile than condo market – true long-term play. These areas offer excellent schools, safety, quality of life comparable to upscale neighborhoods in São Paulo or Buenos Aires.

For Sellers:

Continue to have upper hand due to limited competition, but watch pricing. Overpricing results in 2-3 months on market rather than 2-3 weeks.

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Outlying/Affordable Markets

Homestead & South Dade

Market Type: Far south Miami-Dade; primarily entry-level single-family and new construction tract homes, plus older condos/townhomes; price-sensitive local market

Prices (Q4 2025):

• Homestead City Median Single-Family: $415K-$440K
• YoY Change: DOWN -3% to -5%
• One of few segments showing decline, likely due to new supply and stretched affordability
• Many new 4-bed homes that sold $450K in 2022 now trading slightly lower or flat
• Townhomes/Condos: ~$300K median, also flat/down YoY

Market overshot in frenzy and is adjusting to what local incomes ($70K household) can support.

Inventory:

Homestead has seen inventory build up:

• New home builders delivered many homes (more coming)
• Months’ Supply: ~8-9 months (buyer-favorable)
• Builder incentives reported: mortgage rate buydowns, small price cuts
• Days on Market: ~90-100 days average (notably longer than closer-in areas)

Homestead is mildly a buyer’s market now.

Buyer Composition:

• Primarily local workforce and some investors
• One of few places middle-class families (~$70K incomes) can still buy house in Miami
• High FHA loan usage
• Investors (rental investors) active during boom; some sold to capture gains, others holding/renting
• International buyers rare – few South Americans might buy cheap new houses as investments
• Brazilians typically do not focus here (too far from urban amenities)

Rental Demand:

Reasonably strong:

• Military personnel (Homestead Air Reserve Base) and local workers rent
• Rents for 3BR house: ~$2,500 (cheaper than closer to Miami)
• Vacancy: Moderate (~6%); some new rental communities came online
• Rent vs buy calculus shifted – slight price dip means some renters might buy if rates drop

Development:

Heavy new construction pipeline:

• Big builders (Lennar, DR Horton) have large subdivisions (hundreds of homes) ongoing
• Steady supply is why market cooled
• Unlike central Miami, Homestead isn’t land-constrained yet
• Builders likely to pace construction in 2026 to avoid oversupply

Trends:

Homestead is bit of leading indicator – overheated fastest, cooling fastest:

• YoY sales down, inventory up
• Expect continued slight price softness into early 2026 (confidence: medium): perhaps another 0-5% dip in median
• Until excess new inventory absorbed or rates fall to improve affordability

Long-term: As Greater Miami grows, Homestead will benefit from those priced out elsewhere.

Bottom Line:

Currently a buyer’s market – one of few in Miami. Buyers can find brand-new homes with discounts/incentives. Those who can afford commute might seize this moment to buy at relative bargain (potentially refinance later).

Investors may find better cap rates here (prices lower relative to rents), but must be selective and account for higher vacancy risk.

Sellers (especially builders) need to stay competitive on price and offer creative deals (rate buydowns, etc.) to entice rate-sensitive buyer pool.

—

Rental Market Update (Q4 2025) and Q1 2026 Outlook

Miami’s rental market remains one of the hottest in the nation, though rent growth has moderated from double-digit pandemic-era increases. High interest rates and migration have kept many would-be buyers in rental market, ensuring strong demand.

Median Rents (Late 2025)

Based on various sources, median asking rents in Miami metro:

• Studio: ~$2,050 per month
• 1-Bedroom: ~$2,200-$2,550 per month
• 2-Bedroom: ~$2,770-$3,000 per month
• 3-Bedroom: ~$3,525 per month

Average Rent Miami: ~$2,698 (RentCafe) to $3,000 (various sources depending on methodology)

Annual Increase: Roughly +1-3% (significant moderation from +35% cumulative 2020-2022)

Miami rents are ~34% above U.S. average, making it one of most expensive rental markets after New York, San Francisco.

Neighborhood Rent Variations

Urban Core (Brickell, Downtown):

• Brickell 1BR: $2,700-$3,300+
• Brickell 2BR: $3,500-$4,000+
• Luxury units: $5K+ common

Beachfront (Miami Beach, Sunny Isles):

• Modern South Beach 2BR: $4,000+
• Premium for ocean views

Suburban:

• Kendall 2BR: ~$2,300
• Homestead 2BR house: ~$2,400
• North Miami 3BR: ~$2,500

Single-Family Rentals:

• Coral Gables/Pinecrest 3BR: $5,000-$6,000+
• Command higher prices than apartments due to scarcity

Vacancy and Competition

Exceptionally Low Vacancy:

• Miami-Dade: 6.0-6.9% (various sources Q2-Q3 2025)
• Apartment Occupancy: ~96.5% (meaning <3.5% vacancy) – highest in U.S.
• Peak Season: Average listing got 19 renter inquiries, double national average
• Days on Market (Rental): ~32 days average
• #1 Most Competitive Rental Market in U.S. in 2025

Even as Miami added ~18,600 new apartments in 2024 and ~1.2% to inventory, it’s not enough to cool demand – affluent newcomers fill units as available.

Recent Cooling Trends (Important Context)

While overall demand remains strong, some price moderation observed:

• Q2 2025: Statewide Florida median rent dropped to $2,090 (from $2,125 in March)
• Miami Specific: Median rent fell to $3,000 in May 2025 (-6.2% YoY according to some sources)
• Vacancy Rose: Miami hit 7.8% vacancy in May 2025 (highest among Florida metros)

Reasons:

1. New Supply: Miami added nearly 20,000 rental units over past two years

2. Luxury Segment Softening: High-end rentals particularly affected

3. Market Rebalancing: After 35%+ increases 2020-2022

Neighborhood-Specific:

• Sunny Isles Beach 2BR: Rents down -18% YoY
• Deerfield Beach 1BR: Down -13%
• Miami-Dade overall: -6.3% YoY in some measures (November 2024 data)

However, Palm Beach County rent growth: +13.5% YoY; Broward/St. Lucie unchanged – highlighting market segmentation.

Short-Term Rentals (STRs)

STR segment important but heavily regulated:

City of Miami:

• Hosts need special license (Certificate of Use)
• Certain zones allow STR (parts of Downtown, Edgewater)

Miami Beach:

• STRs <30 days banned in most residential areas
• Only allowed in tourist-designated districts (parts of South Beach)
• Enforcement strict – hefty fines if caught

Surfside/Bal Harbour:

• Strictly limit STRs (family-oriented towns)

Opportunities:

• STRs thrive in allowed areas and condo-hotel buildings
• Daily rates very lucrative: 1BR beachfront $250-$400/night in winter
• Many Latin American investors favor this strategy for cash flow

Caution:

• Only certain buildings/zones legally allow vacation rentals
• Ensure compliance before purchasing for STR
• Condo association rules tightening (some voting to prohibit new STR to avoid noise/wear)

Cap Rates and Yields

Investors face relatively low cap rates given high prices:

• Multifamily Apartment Buildings: ~5.8% cap rate average in Miami
• Higher than LA/NYC (sub-5%) but lower than some Sunbelt peers
• Individual Condos/SFH Rentals: Often 3-5% net yield range

Example:

• $500K condo renting $2,500/mo = $30K gross = 6% gross yield
• After taxes, HOA, etc.: ~4% net

Higher-end properties: even lower yields (2-3% net).

Why Invest Despite Low Yields?

1. Rent growth prospects

2. Asset appreciation potential

3. Institutional investors betting on Miami’s long-term growth

4. Safe haven for international capital (not yield-driven)

Rent vs Buy Analysis

At current rates, renting can be financially rational:

• Median $600K home with 20% down at 6.5% interest = ~$3,000 P&I, plus ~$1,000 taxes, ~$500+ insurance = $4,500+/mo total
• Same home might rent for ~$3,500 = renter saves $1,000+ monthly

Miami’s Rent-to-Income Ratios: Very high (over 40% of median income)

• Buy-to-income ratios also high
• Housing expensive whether renting or buying

Many renters are “renting by necessity” until mortgage rates drop or prices adjust.

Forecast: If rates fall under ~5.5% in late 2026, some pressure releases as renters become buyers. But for Q1 2026, rental occupancy should remain at record highs.

Forecast for Q1 2026

Rents: Expect to plateau or rise slightly (+1-3% for quarter) – confidence: medium-high

Reasoning:

• Many data sources project Miami rent growth ~3-5% annually going forward (down from 30% cumulative 2021-22)
• Vacancy may uptick marginally if new apartments delivered, but given job/population growth, won’t rise much
• ~6,000 new multifamily units expected in 2025; vacancy (~9.1% in large complexes) only barely above national average
• X-factor: tenant affordability – limit to how high rents can go relative to incomes

Risks:

• Renter roommate households may increase
• Some local migration to cheaper metros if rents push further
• But incoming higher-income residents provide steady tenant pool for landlords

Key Points for Renters & Landlords

Renters:

• Prepare for competition
• Start search early, have paperwork ready
• Consider expanding geography
• Lock in longer lease to hedge future rent hikes
• Calculate rent vs buy carefully – in Miami often takes 5+ years for buying to beat renting financially

Investors/Landlords:

• Rental market is your friend now – low vacancy, high demand
• Watch expenses (Florida insurance/taxes cut into returns)
• Cap rates might compress if interest rates fall (more buyers chase properties)
• Focus on locations with enduring demand (near jobs, transit, good schools)
• Consider future supply: downtown Miami will see many new apartments (could temper rent growth vs. Coral Gables where multifamily construction limited)

—

Pre-Construction Pipeline and New Development Impact (2025-2028)

Miami is experiencing another construction boom, albeit more luxury-focused and better-capitalized than mid-2000s. Pre-construction condo pipeline is robust through 2028; wave of multifamily (rental) development also underway.

Major Residential Deliveries (2025-2028)

Estimated New Condo Units:

• 2025: ~4,200 units
• 2026: ~6,800 units (PEAK)
• 2027: ~5,100 units

High-Profile Projects:

Brickell/Downtown:

• Waldorf Astoria Hotel & Residences (100 stories) – ~2027
• St. Regis Brickell (2 towers) – 2026/27
• Cipriani Residences – 2026
• Baccarat Brickell – 2026
• 1428 Brickell – 2026
• Lofty Brickell – 2025
• Okan Tower (mixed-use) – 2026
• Legacy Miami Worldcenter – 2025
• Casa Bella – 2025
• Thousands of luxury units to urban core

Edgewater/Midtown:

• Aria Reserve (782 units) – 2024-25
• Edition Edgewater (~185 units) – 2026
• Missoni Baia – delivered 2023
• The Standard Residences Midtown – 2025
• Wynwood 29 (condo) – 2025

Miami Beach:

• Five Park (98 units) – 2025 delivered
• Aman Miami Beach (23 ultra-lux units) – 2026
• Bulgari Residences (planned, Shore Club redevelopment)

Bal Harbour/Surfside:

• Rivage Bal Harbour (61 units) – 2026
• Proposed Rosewood Residences Surfside – ~2026

Sunny Isles Beach:

• Bentley Residences (216 units) – 2026-27 (60%+ sold)
• St. Regis Sunny Isles (~194 units) – 2027
• Recently delivered: Turnberry Ocean Club (201 units, 2020) still selling developer units

Coconut Grove:

• Vita at Grove Isle (65 units) – 2025
• Mr. C Tigertail Residences (proposed)

Rental Apartments:

Thousands of units also under construction (Downtown, Doral, Coral Gables, Kendall):

• Miami Worldcenter Caoba phase 2
• Grove Station Towers
• Doral residential villages
• Multiple projects bringing new rental supply

Impact on Inventory

This pipeline is significant – 2026’s ~6,800 new condos is biggest number since 2008.

If demand doesn’t keep pace:

• Inventory (especially condos) will swell further
• Miami’s condo months’ supply already 14 months and rising
• By late 2025, evident: deliveries > absorptions (YTD 6,282 new multifamily units delivered vs. 4,983 absorbed)

Oversupply Risk:

• Concentrated in luxury condo segment and certain locales (Downtown/Brickell, Edgewater, Sunny Isles)
• Expect downward pressure on prices/rents in those areas in 2026 if investor demand doesn’t absorb units
• Confidence: Medium-high for pressure in Downtown; low for ultra-lux beachfront (has more global demand)

Developer Credibility & Construction Quality

Post-Surfside tragedy (2021 condo collapse), developer scrutiny is higher:

• Current cycle players include many established names: Related Group, Swire, Chetrit, Secured, Terra, international firms (PMG, Kushner)
• Mostly strong track records
• Build quality and engineering standards improved
• Stricter building codes, more thorough inspections

Risk Assessment:

• Overall risk of construction defects or incompletion is lower this cycle than mid-2000s
• No fly-by-night small developers proliferating (as in 2006)
• Buyers should still do due diligence (who is general contractor? project financing secured?)

Deposit Structures

Miami’s pre-construction deposit model:

• Typical: ~50% down in stages
• Common Structure: 10% at reservation, 10% at contract, 10% at groundbreaking, 10% at top-off, 10% at closing
• Some vary but ~50% total by closing is standard

For Foreign Buyers:

• Familiar system (similar to Latin American new developments)
• Large equity requirement kept speculation in check
• Most buyers had real end-user intent or long-term investment plans

Consideration:

• Large deposits tie up capital for 2-3 years (opportunity cost)
• Many foreign buyers view as forced savings in USD
• Currency Risk: Brazilians/others must consider FX on deposits paid over time – falling BRL means each subsequent deposit effectively costs more in local currency

Absorption Rates

• Many top projects 60-100% sold by completion – indicating solid absorption in luxury
• Less iconic developments struggle
• Examples: Waldorf Astoria (downtown) ~70% sold despite high price (iconic status)
• Generic projects might be 50% sold at completion, needing post-delivery sales with incentives

Expectation:

• Absorption will eventually clear pipeline
• But may take longer – especially 2026’s peak
• Possible developer incentives or bulk deals

Inventory Pressure – Over or Undersupply?

Tale of Two Segments:

Undersupply:

• Mid-market and single-family
• Entry-level homes and moderately-priced rentals
• No oversupply of single-family homes or affordably-priced housing

Oversupply Risk:

• Luxury condos ($1M+)
• By 2026, $1M+ condo inventory could be quite high
• Over $5M condo segment already buyer-favored (many listings, leverage for buyers)
• If demand falters (global recession, rising carrying costs), some oversupply could pressure prices downward

Note: Oversupply of Miami luxury condos >$5M already giving buyers leverage in 2025.

Forecast: Continued into 2026, but market should re-equilibrate by 2027-28 if Miami’s growth story continues (though with some price volatility).

Neighborhood-Specific Impacts

Brickell:

• New ultra-lux towers will cement as “billionaires’ row”
• But also increase traffic/density; infrastructure will be tested
• Retail/dining benefit from more affluent residents

Edgewater:

• Aria Reserve, Edition bring hundreds upscale residents
• Boosts neighborhood profile (Edgewater becomes more “luxury”)
• Possible strain on local roads/parks

Wynwood/Midtown:

• New residential finally puts true resident population in Wynwood (mostly commercial/arts)
• Could shift from purely nightlife/tourist to mixed community
• Questions about preserving artsy character vs. condo-ization

Sunny Isles:

• Skyline becomes even more ultra-high-end
• Might face oversaturation of luxury – enough $10M buyers for all Bentley/St. Regis units?
• So far, international demand suggests yes
• City’s property tax base will soar (improving local services long-term)

Downtown:

• Miami Worldcenter, Waldorf will inject more 24/7 activity
• Downtown’s long-promised renaissance as 24/7 city coming to fruition by 2026
• During absorption phase, expect promotions to attract renters/buyers

Older Condo Stock Challenges:

• As glitzy new buildings open, older condos (1970s-80s) face competition
• Burden of new safety regulations (milestone inspections, reserve requirements)
• Many associations hitting owners with special assessments for repairs ($50K+ per unit sometimes)
• Leading to more “for sale” signs in older buildings
• Owners who can’t afford assessments selling, often at discounts
• Anticipate conversions/teardowns: Older buildings near end-of-life could be sold to developers for land

Summary

New construction pipeline will bring modernization and growth but requires careful market balancing.

Forecast:

• Temporary oversupply in luxury condos by 2026
• Window where buyers can get deals, especially on resale of new units from investors needing to exit
• By 2027-28, if Miami’s growth continues, market should re-equilibrate, absorbing units
• Likely with some price volatility in between

Key Difference from 2008:

• Stringent building safety laws
• Largely cash-funded construction
• Reduces systemic risk – no wave of foreclosures expected

Pattern: Build, absorb, build again. Short-term pain (for some sellers) could be long-term gain keeping Miami’s housing stock fresh and globally competitive.

—

International Buyer Insights – Focus on Brazil and Others

International buyers remain a pillar of Miami’s real estate demand, comprising higher share than any U.S. market.

Overall International Participation

Q4 2025 Data:

• 52% of new construction units purchased by global buyers (November 2025 data)
• 73 countries represented in South Florida new construction purchases over last 22 months
• 30% of all home sales by dollar volume in Miami (far above ~8% national average)
• 49% of new construction was global buyers in July 2025 report; increased to 52% by November

Miami ranked #1 U.S. market for international homebuyers in Q1 2025.

Top Foreign Buyer Countries

For New Construction (November 2025):

1. Colombia – 23% (ranked #1)

2. Mexico – 20% (ranked #2)

3. Argentina – 11% (ranked #3)

4. Brazil – 9% (ranked #4)

5. Turkey – ranked #5

• Also: Peru, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Canada, Venezuela

For Overall Miami Sales:

Top origins include Canada, Argentina, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, UK, France, Spain

Brazilian Buyer Deep Dive

Brazil consistently ranks as top-5 foreign buyer group in Miami, with particular strength in certain segments.

Motivations:

1. Safe-Haven and Diversification:

• Brazil’s economy and politics can be volatile
• Wealthy Brazilians see Miami real estate as stable, hard asset in USD
• Hedge against Brazil’s currency depreciation (Real lost significant value over past decade)
• Protection against domestic instability
• “Global buyers looking for security in investment because they lack that in their countries”

2. Lifestyle and Cultural Affinity:

• Miami offers tropical climate similar to Brazil
• Sizable Brazilian expat community in South Florida (estimated tens of thousands)
• Brazilian restaurants, Portuguese-speaking services widely available
• Social networks make Miami welcoming
• “Little Brazil” areas (Aventura especially)

3. Education and Family:

• Many Brazilian families invest so children can study in U.S. schools/universities
• Safe place to live for family
• Coral Gables/Pinecrest see Brazilian parents buying for kids in top private schools

4. Visa Considerations:

• Brazil not eligible for U.S. E-2 treaty investor visa directly (longstanding frustration)
• Brazilians often obtain second passport (Portugal, Italy) to use E-2 via that country
• Some pursue EB-5 investor visa (~$800K in U.S. business investment)
• Owning property alone doesn’t grant visa but complements other immigration strategies
• Brazil recently added to U.S. Global Entry program (closer ties)
• Brazilians can spend 6 months in U.S. on tourist visa – many take maximum advantage, living part-time in Miami

5. Value Comparison:

• Compared to São Paulo or Rio’s elite neighborhoods, Miami can seem like bargain for global rich
• Prime São Paulo real estate (Itaim Bibi, Jardins): R$40-50k/m² (approx $7,000/m² or ~$650/sqft)
• Prime Miami (SoFi, Brickell): $1,200-$1,500/sqft for ultra-lux
• For Brazilians, quality, safety, and amenities in Miami properties often far exceed what same money buys at home
• Miami has no luxury tax on properties; holding high-end real estate in Brazil can come with more bureaucracy

6. Rental Income and Business Opportunities:

• Some purchase for STR rental income (dollars)
• Others establishing base for business expansion (Brazilian companies set up Miami offices; owners buy homes)

Currency Challenges – USD/BRL Impact

Double-Edged Sword:

Current Status (Nov 14, 2025):

• R$5.29 per USD – Real strengthened significantly from R$6.73 low (Dec 2024)
• YoY: Real up ~8.6%
• Recent: Strengthened 2.85% over past month

Impact on Purchases:

When Real weakens (as end-2024 at R$6+):

• Miami property becomes MORE expensive for Brazilians
• Can temporarily slow interest or shift to smaller units

When Real strengthens (current R$5.29):

• Savvy Brazilians jump on opportunity to buy at “discount” in their currency
• Current conditions relatively favorable

Historical Context:

Real remains historically weak (long-term average R$3-4/USD). Analysts forecast potential weakening back toward R$5.7-6.0/USD by end-2025.

Hedging Strategies:

Many Brazilians:

• Timeshare funds
• Use dollar-denominated assets
• Some have offshore accounts or businesses earning USD
• Might leverage U.S. dollar loan/financing to not convert all cash at once

Outlook:

Given forecast of slightly weaker Real by year-end, Brazilian buyers may feel pressure. However, ultra-wealthy often proceed regardless of exchange rate. Middle-tier investors might pause if BRL dives significantly.

Cash Buying Patterns

Brazilians known to prefer cash deals in Miami:

• Often simpler due to foreign income documentation issues with U.S. banks
• Miami condo purchases nearly half cash overall
• Brazilians likely skew toward that statistic
• Some do take U.S. mortgages (if have U.S. credit or via international private banking)
• Majority just wire funds

Legal Framework:

• Brazil’s capital export rules allow individuals to legally remit funds abroad (with Central Bank registration)
• Many have used this to diversify into Miami

Preferred Neighborhoods (Brazilian Focus)

Condo Preferences:

1. Brickell (especially younger professionals and investors):

• Very popular with Brazilian executives
• “Wall Street South” attracts finance professionals
• Many Brazilians work in finance/tech with Miami outposts
• Cultural appeal: Portuguese speakers, Brazilian restaurants/businesses
• According to new construction data: Brazil ~9% of new-condo foreign buyers; many in urban core

2. Sunny Isles Beach (for beach lifestyle and prestige):

• Historically loved by Brazilians
• Portuguese heard regularly at places like Porsche Tower
• Marketed heavily in Brazil
• Brazilians estimated as top-5 foreign group there
• Seeking beachfront condos as investments and status symbols

3. Bal Harbour/Surfside:

• Many Brazilian and Argentine affluent families
• Drawn by luxury shopping (Bal Harbour Shops)
• Brand-name condos (Armani Casa in Sunny Isles marketed to Brazil)

4. Downtown/Edgewater:

• Brazilians buying pre-construction
• Drawn to loft-style or bay views

5. Miami Beach:

• Brazilians do buy high-end condos in South Beach/SoFi, though perhaps less than other Latin Americans
• Wealthy Brazilians often buy Fisher Island condos for exclusivity – Brazilians rank among top foreign owners there

Single-Family Preferences:

For Families Relocating:

1. Coral Gables:

• Favorite among Brazilians with families
• Quiet, elegant, lush greenery (reminiscent of upscale Brazilian neighborhoods)
• Proximity to top private bilingual schools (Gulliver, Carrollton)
• Brazilian entrepreneurs buy in Gables Estates when relocating businesses

2. Coconut Grove:

• Similar appeal to Coral Gables
• Quality of life, green spaces

3. Pinecrest:

• Known among Brazilians with school-age kids
• Appreciate large homes and private schools
• Similar to high-end São Paulo suburbs

4. Aventura:

• Notable Brazilian community
• Upper-middle-class families for suburban feel
• Bilingual schools
• Brazilians run businesses in area
• Earned nickname “Little Brazil”

Investment Properties:

• Brazilians purely for income might buy Doral (rental townhouses)
• Downtown condo-hotel units for Airbnb (if STR-allowed)
• Tend to follow ROI opportunities via network recommendations

Other Significant International Buyers

Argentina:

• Despite currency controls, wealthy Argentines get money out via creative means
• Love Sunny Isles, Downtown, Edgewater, Weston (Broward)
• Many are end-users now (moving families due to economic turmoil)

Colombia:

• One of top groups (#1 in new construction purchases at 23%)
• Buy across price points
• Brickell condos for investment to Doral/Pinecrest homes if relocating

Venezuela:

• Political/economic turmoil since 2015 curtailed some new capital
• Those with money abroad keep Miami property
• Weston and Doral big enclaves, also Brickell

Mexico:

• Rapidly growing cohort (#2 in new construction at 20%)
• Business elites concerned about security at home
• Snapping up Miami luxury condos
• Brickell (Mexicans at Brickell City Centre residences), Edgewater, high-end Coral Gables

Canada:

• Focus on winter homes
• Fort Lauderdale, West Palm, or houses in Naples more typical
• In Miami: condos (Miami Beach, Downtown) for winter use

Europe (UK, France, Spain, Italy):

• Love Miami Beach and downtown condos, usually higher-end
• Italians and French have notable presence in South Beach and Edgewater
• Weak euro 2022 slowed them; currency parity improved so some returning

Russia & Turkey:

• Pre-war, Russians big in Sunny Isles (Trump Towers); sanctions limited new buying
• Turks surprisingly appeared (Turkey #5 on new buyers list)
• Possibly due to economic woes, seeking asset safety
• Buying condos (likely Brickell and downtown)

International Buyer Outlook Q1 2026

International demand expected to strengthen further if USD stabilizes or weakens:

• Post-pandemic travel restrictions eased, 2023-2025 saw resurgence
• Foreign purchases in U.S. jumped +33% to $59B (Apr’24-Mar’25 period)
• Florida claimed #1 spot for foreign buyers 16 years running
• Nearly half of Florida’s international purchases are in South Florida

High Confidence:

Brazilian and other Latin American demand will remain robust into Q1 2026.

Possible Constraints:

• Global recession could reduce discretionary purchases
• Significantly stronger dollar could price some out
• But for wealthy international families, Miami’s mix of investment and lifestyle is unmatched

Tips for Brazilian Buyers

1. Monitor BRL/USD:

• Plan currency transfers strategically
• Consider forward contracts or phased transfers to manage FX risk

2. Leverage Miami’s Global Network:

• Many Portuguese-speaking professionals (realtors, attorneys, etc.)
• Brazilians in industry can smooth process

3. Understand Tax Implications:

• Brazil taxes worldwide assets
• Legal structures exist (offshore companies, etc.) for U.S. property
• Consider U.S. FIRPTA rules on selling as foreigner

4. Community Integration:

• Areas with existing Brazilian communities (Aventura for everyday life, Brickell for networking)
• If moving, plug into groups like Brazilian-American Chamber

5. Clear Goal – Investment vs Residence:

• Investment: Focus on STR-friendly or easily rentable units; verify foreigner landlord laws
• Planning U.S. Residency: Lean toward single-family in good school areas for stability

6. Current Market Timing:

• BRL relatively strong at R$5.29/USD (vs. R$6.73 low)
• Buyer’s market in urban condos (Brickell/Downtown) – negotiate 5-10% off asking
• Stable single-family markets (Coral Gables/Pinecrest) for long-term family investment

—

Domestic Buyer Trends

On domestic front, Miami has been magnet in recent years, fundamentally altering demographics and demand patterns.

In-Migration from Other States

Pandemic triggered wave; while slowed slightly, still ongoing:

Top Feeder States:

• New York (and broader Tri-State NJ/CT)
• California
• Illinois
• Northeast (Massachusetts, Washington DC)
• High-tax states consistently sending buyers

Scale:

• Net migration to Florida: ~365,000 annually (2023-25 statewide)
• Miami metro population: Up ~1.6-1.8% per year
• Mostly via domestic migration

Why Miami?

1. Tax savings: No state income tax (can save NY hedge fund manager tens of thousands/year)

2. Climate: Warmer weather

3. Pro-business environment

4. Post-pandemic lifestyle preferences

5. Finance/tech hub emergence: Miami now mentioned with Austin, Nashville for corporate relocations

Demographics:

• Young professionals: 30s-40s (mobile jobs in finance/tech)
• Retirees/Early Retirees: 50s-60s (lifestyle)
• Families with kids: Increasing as schools improve, remote work allows relocation

Job Relocations and Business Growth

Finance:

• Hedge funds, private equity, wealth management expanding
• Ken Griffin’s Citadel moved to Miami
• Goldman Sachs opened Miami hubs
• Brings high-salary employees looking for luxury condos or Coral Gables estates

Tech:

• Push to become “Tech Hub” saw many entrepreneurs from SF/LA/NY relocate
• Some hype cooled 2023 but tech scene remains
• Events like eMerge Americas, continued venture capital inflow
• Often rent luxury initially, then buy if staying long-term

Remote Workers:

• Thousands of fully remote workers chose Miami during pandemic and stayed
• Add to demand for rentals and purchases across price points

Corporate Moves:

• Companies in hospitality, real estate development, healthcare have regional HQs now
• Latin American HQs of multinationals often in Miami
• “Wall Street South” effect: more business services (law, consulting) staff relocating

Tax Motivations

Cannot be overstated:

• High earners from NY/CA can save ~10-13% of income by residing in FL
• Someone making $1M/year: ~$100K saved annually
• Can support mortgage payment on $1.5-2M home by itself

Additional Benefits:

• Florida has relatively low property taxes (with homestead exemptions) vs. Northeast
• No estate/inheritance tax at state level

Pattern Observed:

• Wealthy individuals buying second homes pre-2020 turned them into primary homes 2020-2021 for tax benefits
• Many remain officially Florida residents

Trend Persistence:

High confidence this continues as long as state tax disparities exist.

Affordability Comparisons

For People from NYC or SF:

• Miami real estate still looks affordable relative to home markets
• Luxury condo $1,200/sqft in Brickell seems cheap if sold Manhattan condo at $2,000/sqft
• $2M Coral Gables 4BR with pool looks like bargain vs. $4M in Palo Alto

For Local Miami Residents:

• Affordability is crisis
• Median prices ~$600K with median household incomes ~$60K range
• Many locals priced out
• Led to some domestic out-migration of lower-income residents or pushed to suburbs/outskirts

Bifurcation:

• Inflow: Wealthy new residents
• Outflow: Some working-class locals

National Level:

• Miami’s price growth far outpaced wage growth
• One of least affordable metros (price-to-income and rent-to-income very high)

For Buyers from High-Cost Markets:

Miami still offers relative value and attractive tax/lifestyle combo.

For Locals/Average Americans:

Miami is expensive; requires creativity (condos instead of houses, or areas like Homestead for affordability).

Domestic Buyer Behavior

Interest Rate Sensitivity:

• Domestic buyers more sensitive to rates than foreign cash buyers
• High rates 2023-25 did sideline some
• But many out-of-state buyers cash-rich from selling in expensive markets (lessens impact)

Purchasing Patterns:

• Sight-unseen purchases and quick relocations were theme 2021/22
• Now, domestic buyers more measured
• Often rent first, then buy after knowing area
• Could slightly reduce immediate purchase demand (confidence: medium)

Semi-Primary Trend:

• Growing trend of northerners splitting time
• Example: 7-8 months in FL (qualify for tax residency plus winter warmth), summers up north
• These folks often look for condos or easy-to-maintain homes (away part of year)
• Drives condo demand in West Palm and Miami’s waterfront condos

Cultural Shifts:

• Influx of New Yorkers/Californians gradually influencing Miami
• Increased demand for walkable neighborhoods, better public services
• Different architectural tastes (modern homes catering to NY/LA transplants)
• Domestic infusion arguably increases Miami’s “sophistication,” brings new expectations

Outlook

Domestic migration to Florida might slow if economy slows (people move less in recessions).

However:

• High-cost states have become even less affordable with inflation
• Potentially pushing more people to lower-tax, lower-cost areas like Florida

As Companies Finalize Hybrid Work:

• Some experimenting with Miami might either commit and buy, or return to original city

Anticipate:

Continued net positive domestic migration into Miami in 2026 but at somewhat moderated pace vs. pandemic frenzy (confidence: medium).

Profile:

Domestic buyers will remain skewed toward affluent given pricing.

Investor Insights (Domestic)

Beyond individuals relocating, institutional investors (REITs, private equity) eye Miami:

• Especially multifamily and SFR (single-family rental) portfolios
• Florida’s landlord-friendly laws and growth prospects attractive
• Institutional purchase of entire new rental communities in suburbs
• Bulk condo buys

Institutional Demand Floor:

Another reason crash unlikely – if prices dip enough to boost yields, big investors step in (as in past downturns).

—

Forecast – Q4 2025 into Q1 2026

Based on data and trends, here are predictions for next 3-6 months in Miami real estate market:

Home Prices

Forecast:** Overall Miami home prices to **hold steady or rise slightly (+1-3%) through Q1 2026

Confidence: Medium

By Segment:

• Single-Family: Will likely inch up (low inventory, high demand) – High Confidence
• Condos: Flat overall – luxury/new condo appreciation balanced by softness in older condos – Medium Confidence

No Significant Correction Expected:

• Low confidence in any drop >5% next quarter absent external shock
• However, certain over-supplied submarkets (downtown condos) might see minor price dip of few percent as new supply hits

Supporting Factors:

• Momentum from Q4’s strong sales
• Anticipated mortgage rate relief
• Low distress levels (homeowners have significant equity)
• Strong population growth

Inventory Levels

Forecast: Active inventory will probably plateau or shrink modestly in Q4 2025-Q1 2026

Confidence: Medium-High

Reasoning:

• New listings remain low
• Many sellers take properties off-market during holidays
• Buyer demand picking up (due to rate cuts) could outpace new supply

By Property Type:

• Single-Family: Months’ supply stays ~6 months or below
• Condo: Inventory ~12-15 months through Q1

Caveat:

• Some new condo projects completing Q1 may add inventory (units listed by investors or unsold developer inventory)
• So condo inventory might not fall as much

Sales Volume

Forecast:** Home sales likely to **increase year-over-year in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026

Confidence: High

Expected Increase: +5-10% YoY this winter

Reasoning:

• Already saw September sales up YoY
• Slightly lower rates
• Strong pent-up demand
• However, sales still below 2021 peak levels

Boost Pronounced In:

• Mid-market segments as sidelined buyers re-enter
• Q1 Typically “Season”: Lots of closings from winter buyers

Mortgage Rates

Forecast:** By Q1 2026, expert consensus: **30-year fixed rates 6.0-6.2% range

Confidence: Medium

Current (Nov 2025): ~6.6%

Year-End 2025: Expected 6.0-6.3%

Full Year 2026: Projected ~6.0-6.1% average

Confidence Medium Because:

External economic changes could alter bond yields. But assuming inflation behaves, modest further rate declines likely.

Impact:

Will improve buyer affordability incrementally and bolster demand.

Rents

Forecast:** Rents will likely continue **modest upward trajectory (~+1% to +2% next quarter)

Confidence: High

Reasoning:

• Q1 slightly slower season for rentals after peak Q4
• But Miami’s tight vacancy means seasonal dip minor
• Might see flat rents Dec-Jan then small uptick by March as people move before summer

High Occupancy (~96%): Gives landlords pricing power

Rent Growth:

Slower than prior year but still positive.

Landlord Caution:

Some pushback; more supply coming mid-2026.

Inventory Mix & Construction

Forecast:** New construction deliveries to **continue per schedule

Confidence: High (buildings nearly finished)

Impact:

• Uptick of inventory in condo sector as Q1 closings occur in projects like Lofty, Casa Bella
• Could put temporary blip of inventory on MLS (units investors list for re-sale or rent)
• However, any major oversupply issues likely manifest later in 2026 when bulk of projects complete

Q1 2026 as Preview:

• Will watch absorption closely
• If Q1 sales of new dev units slow, developers might adjust pricing or offer incentives by Q2

Neighborhood Momentum

Most Momentum:

1. Coral Gables/Coconut Grove

• High demand, low supply
• Prices steadily rising
• Confidence: High

2. Miami Beach Luxury

• Still riding high on wealth migration
• Confidence: High for Q1 sales (e.g., expect record-breaking penthouse deals this winter)

3. Downtown/Brickell New Dev

• Will buzz as global buyers come for winter
• See shiny new towers
• Anticipate good sales at sales galleries
• Maybe some new launches announced at Miami’s March real estate events

Slow Momentum:

Older Condos in Less Prime Areas:

• North Beach, older Kendall condos
• Might stagnate or need discounts

Homestead:

• Some price declines

Emerging to Watch:

Wynwood:

• Few new residential projects finishing
• Could draw new buyer/renter type
• Possibly boost values around district

Market Corrections or Risks

No Immediate Major Correction Anticipated Q1 2026

Confidence: Medium-High

Flag Risks:

1. Interest Rate Reversal:

• If inflation re-ignites and Fed halts or reverses cuts
• Mortgage rates could bounce back up, chilling demand
• Confidence for Q1: Low
• Longer-Term Risk: Higher

2. Economic Downturn:

• U.S. recession in 2026 (some predict mid-2026) could hurt job growth and prices
• Miami historically cyclical
• For Q1: Leading indicators still positive (low unemployment), so low confidence of downturn by Q1

3. Oversupply in Condos:

• By end of 2026 could cause correction in that segment
• Q1 might start showing cracks: investor-owned units lingering, slight price cuts downtown
• Not crash, but something to monitor
• Confidence: Medium in oversupply risk building

4. Insurance and Climate:

• Rapidly rising property insurance premiums (some up 40-50% YoY due to insurer pull-outs) serious issue
• Increases ownership cost, could pressure prices downward especially for older homes/condos
• Confidence: Medium-high risk long-term; effect gradual
• Any big hurricane could shock market (unpredictable)

5. Global Events:

• Miami tied to Latin America
• Major political/economic crisis in LA can either spike buying (capital flight) or constrain it (less wealth)
• Example: If Brazil’s economy struggles or Argentina restricts outflows, could temporarily dampen buyers
• Conversely, turmoil could increase Miami’s safe-haven appeal (two sides)

Investment Opportunities Q1 2026

1. Older Condo Value Plays:

• Properties needing 40-year recertification upgrades might be acquired at discount
• Opportunity for investors who can renovate or wait out improvements
• Emerging theme: “condo deconversions” – bulk buying older buildings to redevelop
• While complex, savvy investors eyeing 1970s bayfront condos with idea of buying out owners and rebuilding modern tower
• Long-term but potentially lucrative

2. Pre-Construction Flips:

• For those already in pre-con deals, gauge assignment market Q1
• Might be wise to hold through closing unless profit clear
• New opportunities: Developers might quietly offer “friends & family” pricing or better terms Q1 to hit pre-sale targets
• Q1 could be good time to snag unit in not-yet-public VIP phase (developers sometimes do this in Jan before tourist season ends)

3. Rentals:

• Investing in rentals still makes sense given occupancy
• Perhaps focus on multifamily or single-family rentals in strong employment areas (Kendall, South Miami, Doral)
• Cap rates ~5-6% could be found in tertiary neighborhoods
• Compare to 10-year Treasury ~4%: reasonable spread with upside if rates drop and property values rise

4. Development Land:

• Land scarce but interesting play in areas like Little River, Allapattah
• Q1 might see good land deals as some owners cash out at peak prices
• Example: Building townhomes for sale or rent to cater to workforce housing (big builders focus on luxury, gap exists in mid-tier new housing)

—

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

Market State Summary

Miami’s real estate as of Q4 2025 is robust but evolving into healthier balance. Frenzy has cooled, but underlying demand – both domestic and international – remains very strong.

Macro conditions (rates, inflation) incrementally turning favorable for housing.

Market is fragmenting: Luxury vs. non-luxury, new vs. old, urban vs. suburban behaving differently.

For Buyers

More Favorable Environment than past two years, especially if finance-ready:

• More options
• Many segments allow negotiation of price or terms

International Buyers (Brazilians, etc.):

• Act when currency conditions suit
• Focus on quality assets (most resilient to downturns)
• Current BRL strength (R$5.29/USD) creates favorable window vs. late 2024

Domestic Buyers from High-Cost Areas:

• Continue to find Miami attractive for lifestyle and financial reasons
• Patience and due diligence pay off
• Identify soft submarkets (downtown condos) vs. tight (single-family in prime areas)
• Strategize accordingly

For Sellers

Adjust Expectations from 2021 peak euphoria:

• Pricing correctly paramount now
• Homes take longer to sell on average (normalizing)
• Don’t panic

If Selling Condo:

• Prepare for concessions (paying some closing costs, slight price flexibility)
• Unless unit truly one-of-a-kind

Ultra-Luxury Property Owners:

• Pool of buyers still deep but savvy
• Presentation key (staging, repairs done) to achieve top dollar

For Investors

Miami remains solid bet – economic and population fundamentals positive:

• Cherry-pick deals
• Consider currency dynamics, policy changes (Florida’s new condo safety laws impacting older buildings)
• Supply pipeline in asset class

Multi-Family and Single-Family Rentals:

• Bolstered by very high demand
• Relatively safe with steady yields

Condo Investment:

• Could yield appreciation but more nuanced play
• Focus on either ultra-lux for global demand OR entry-level for local demand
• Middle might lag

Risks to Monitor

Insurance Costs and Climate Risks (flood zones, etc.):

• One factor that can fundamentally change cost structures
• Already insurance hikes adding hundreds to monthly costs for many homeowners
• Being addressed by policymakers but remains concern heading into 2026

Overall Outlook

Miami’s real estate market in Q4 2025 is resilient, with soft landing from 2022 peak and poised for measured upswing into 2026.

City’s Global Appeal:

• Domestic migration continue to fuel demand at top
• Rising inventory gives relief and opportunities at other levels

Stakeholders Should Proceed:

• With optimism
• But also clear-eyed view of micro-market dynamics
• Upcoming supply

Market Evolution:

Miami’s evolution from boom-bust market into more stable, diversified economy seems underway – data supports that narrative.

Exciting Time:

• Especially for strategic buyers and investors
• Can take advantage of new landscape
• While enjoying all Magic City offers

—

For Brazilian Buyers – Strategic Summary

Current Market Advantages (Q4 2025)

1. Currency Favorability:

• BRL at R$5.29/USD represents 8.6% strengthening vs. year ago
• Significantly better than R$6.73 low (Dec 2024)
• Creates relative “discount” for BRL-holders converting to USD
• Action: Consider purchasing sooner before potential BRL weakening back toward R$5.7-6.0

2. Buyer’s Market Conditions in Key Areas:

• Brickell/Downtown Condos: Elevated inventory (14-18 months supply) creating negotiation opportunities
• Can achieve 5-10% off asking prices with seller concessions
• Best opportunity in years for Brazilian professionals seeking urban lifestyle

3. Stable Single-Family Markets:

• Coral Gables, Pinecrest, Coconut Grove: Minimal volatility, strong long-term appreciation
• Ideal for Brazilian families relocating with children
• Established Brazilian communities, bilingual schools, quality of life

Prime Neighborhoods for Brazilian Buyers

For Professionals/Investors:

1. Brickell (#1 choice – finance hub, Portuguese speakers, cultural amenities)

2. Sunny Isles Beach (beachfront prestige, established Brazilian presence)

3. Edgewater (waterfront, newer luxury towers)

4. Downtown Miami (urban lifestyle, pre-construction opportunities)

For Families:

1. Coral Gables (top private schools, quiet elegance, Brazilian community)

2. Pinecrest (large lots, family-oriented, “little São Paulo” feel)

3. Aventura (“Little Brazil” – established community, more affordable)

4. Coconut Grove (lifestyle, green spaces, cultural activities)

Strategic Timing Considerations

Buy Now If:

• Have Real-denominated assets ready to convert (favorable current exchange rate)
• Seeking Brickell/Downtown condo (buyer’s market conditions)
• Planning family relocation (school enrollment takes 1+ year)
• Concerned about further Real depreciation

Wait/Monitor If:

• Purely speculative investment with high leverage
• Expecting significant USD weakening (unlikely near-term)
• Seeking ultra-luxury coastal (market still strong/competitive)

Key Action Items

1. Currency Management:

• Consider staggered conversions for large amounts
• Explore forward contracts to lock rates
• For pre-construction: Plan FX strategy for staged deposits

2. Professional Network:

• Utilize Portuguese-speaking realtors, attorneys widely available
• Connect with Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce
• Leverage established Brazilian community resources

3. Tax/Legal Structure:

• Consult on Brazil’s worldwide asset taxation
• Understand U.S. FIRPTA implications for eventual sale
• Consider appropriate ownership structures (individual, offshore entity, etc.)

4. Financing Options:

• While cash preferred, explore U.S. mortgage options if have credit/income documentation
• Some international private banks offer financing to Brazilians
• Can reduce currency risk exposure

5. Due Diligence:

• For condos: Verify STR allowance if rental income intended
• Check building financial health (reserves, pending assessments)
• Understand flood zone, insurance costs
• Review condo association restrictions

Q1 2026 Outlook for Brazilian Buyers

Expected Conditions:

• Continued buyer advantages in urban condo market
• Gradual interest rate declines improving overall market sentiment
• Potential BRL weakening creating urgency
• “Season” (Jan-Mar) brings increased competition but also more inventory

Confidence Level: High that Q1 2026 will remain favorable window for well-prepared Brazilian buyers, particularly in Brickell/Downtown segments.

—

Report Prepared: November 14, 2025

Next Update: Q1 2026 (March 2026)

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. Real estate markets are subject to rapid changes. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with qualified professionals before making any real estate decisions.

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